Sevan Nişanyan: Press cuttings

Why Forecasting War is Hard The tire guy has become famous among those following the war in Ukraine closely for the following thread. Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys. Short form: Military trucks need to be... 2/ March 2nd 2022 619 Retweets 8,343 Likes He argued that the Russian convoy north of Kiev was in deep trouble for tire-related reasons. I am not a tire expert. Is there truth to what he is saying? If so, can Russia fix the problem? To be honest with you, I have no idea. In order to forecast the outcome in Ukraine, maybe I need to do the work of spending a day or so learning about tires since that’s going to be the determining factor in whether or not Kiev falls. Or maybe it’s a waste of time and what he’s saying isn’t even true or it’s ...

Lemmings, NATO, the Russian Threat and the Merchants of Death Some things people believe just aren't true   Lemmings throw themselves off cliffs in mass suicides, right? Actually, no, they don't. A famous award-winning 1950s film, allegedly showing them doing this, was faked. That paragon of responsibility, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, looked into the matter. See  http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=wildlifenews.view_article&articles_id=56 Yet most people vaguely believe the lemming story to be true. It's become quite an important part of their thinking and they are unwilling to let it go.   Say to them that lemmings don’t actually have a mass death-wish, and they will cry out in astonishment and disbelief. Could a similar delusion be affecting views on NATO expansion, supposedly caused by the shivering fear of tiny, furry states cowering on the edge of the Russian bear-pit, begging for our supposedly mighty protection? Well, that is certainly what alm...

" Putin’s general position on those culture war issues is rather closer to that of the vast majority of ordinary people living west of the Elbe than is their own leadership elite’s. " You have the advantage over me. It may be that you are reading this now in your makeshift fallout shelter, hair falling out and bleeding from the gums as the nuclear winter descends. More likely you are saying, rather smugly, to your neighbour: ‘I knew he was taking the piss. He’s a right one, that Putin.’ Or perhaps Vlad’s forces are already in London, having swept through western Europe in about eight hours, the Germans for once outdoing the French with their alacrity to surrender. Well, that should see an end to Stonewall and the Tavistock Clinic, no? Every cloud, etc. I would not wish to underestimate the threat posed by Russia, nor do I have any trust in or liking for its clever, suavely thuggish leader — even if Putin’s general position on those culture war issues is rather closer to that ...